Opinion Piece published in Propel on 6 June 2025, by Bob Gordon, Director of Zero Carbon Forum

I’ve had a note to write about resilience for months. I wish I’d acted on it sooner. 

Spring 2025 is shaping up to be one of the driest in nearly 70 years. March and April saw rainfall levels plummet across the UK, and it shows.  

Farmers report spring crops that have barely germinated. The winter wheat that struggled through a sodden start is now being scorched into submission. Barley’s doing slightly better, but yields are already down on the five-year average, with nitrogen levels too low for reliable malting.  

The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology warns that river flows across most of the country are expected to remain below or exceptionally below normal levels from May to July, increasing the threat of drought.  

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reports that the average protein level for UK Flour Millers group 1 wheat varieties has fallen to 12.5%, its lowest level in over a decade. 

These aren't just problems for farmers - they're problems for every pint pulled and plate served across the country. 

While crops fail in the fields, industry voices are still calling sustainability a “nice to have.” Let’s be absolutely clear: it's not. It's a business imperative and a fast-moving one. 

Hospitality doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Every menu depends on a food system that is increasingly under stress from extreme weather, biodiversity loss, energy volatility, and rising input costs.  

When that system buckles, it doesn’t just affect supply chains, it threatens our ability to serve customers at all.

We need to talk about resilience. Not just in terms of carbon and net zero - vital though those are - but in the real, practical sense of being able to weather a crisis and come out the other side.  

Operators who build resilience into their approach will stand a better chance of weathering the storm.  

And make no mistake: that crisis is here now. Not 2050, or 2030. And it’s only just started. 

So how much is it costing us? 

We’ve all felt the pinch of food price inflation, but we haven’t yet properly reckoned with the why.  

Weather volatility is pushing up costs and shrinking margins. From droughts to floods, crops are failing, harvests are shrinking, and prices are jumping.  

Staples like potatoes, beef and oil have all seen price volatility of 400% in the past five years.  

Those costs are passed on, whether we like it or not, and we haven’t seen the worst of it yet as emissions - and temperatures - continue to rise. 

The sector has been up in arms about the increase in national insurance contributions, and rightly so, but this will pale into insignificance when the existential threat of unavailable food – nutritious, delicious food that customers want, and people need – is no longer available. 

We must treat this crisis for what it really is. A looming existential crisis.  

We need better data on what extreme weather has cost the hospitality sector over the last five years - in lost produce, higher prices, cancelled bookings, and even entire menu redesigns (we’re working on it).  

Even without precise figures, the direction of travel is clear: climate volatility is no longer a long-term risk. It’s a current operational one. 

That’s why sustainability needs to be at the heart of hospitality strategy. To build resilience, improve efficiency and protect brand.  

Not as a bolt-on. Not as a “nice to have”. But as core business. 

 
Sources: 

Met Office: A record-breaking March for sunshine 

The Guardian: Weather tracker: dry spring in northern Europe sets off drought warnings 

The Guardian: Exceptionally low river flows forecast across UK as drought threat grows 

AHDB: Cereals Quality Survey confirms lower nitrogen and protein levels – but it’s not all bad news! 

Grain Central: Hostile season dampens England grain output